When Diplomacy Failed

Goma, January 26, 2026 - One year ago, the city of Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu and the main urban center of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), fell under the control of the Rwandan-backed AFC/M23 movement. The battle that preceded its capture was of unprecedented intensity, marking a major turning point in the conflict in eastern Congo. One year later, with the movement still administering the city, this report revisits the political, diplomatic, and military events that paved the way for the Battle of Goma. December 2024: The Failure of Angolan Mediation On December 15, 2024, in Luanda, hopes were high. Angola was on the verge of brokering a peace agreement between Kinshasa and Kigali. Both delegations had nearly finalized a text, including a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) detailing military commitments and an implementation timeline. However, negotiations collapsed over one key issue: Kinshasa’s categorical refusal to negotiate with the AFC/M23, a condition set by Rwanda for signing the agreement. On December 16, President Paul Kagame did not travel to Luanda. President Félix Tshisekedi arrived alone. The agreement was never signed. Following this diplomatic failure, military pressure rapidly intensified on the ground. A Military Escalation Documented by the United Nations In the days that followed, the United Nations documented the deployment of sophisticated weaponry by Rwandan forces in M23-controlled areas, including surface-to-air missiles and GPS jamming systems. These capabilities severely restricted the use of aircraft and drones by Congolese forces and their allies. In response, President Félix Tshisekedi sought regional support. On December 21, he traveled to Brazzaville, followed by Bujumbura on December 22. Domestically, he initiated sweeping changes within the military command. Four days later, several senior officers were replaced, including the commander of the Third Defense Zone, responsible for North Kivu. The FARDC Chief of Staff had already been replaced ten days earlier. January 2025: The M23 Advance Toward Goma The conflict soon shifted decisively to the battlefield. On Friday, January 3, the AFC/M23 captured Katale. The next day, Masisi-centre fell, bringing rebel forces within 80 kilometers of Goma. On January 7, fighting was reported around Saké, a strategic town about 30 kilometers west of Goma. At the same time, UN experts stated that Rwandan Defense Forces had “continued to provide systematic support to the M23 and effectively controlled its operations.” According to these reports, General Sultani Makenga, the movement’s military leader, continued to “receive instructions and support from Rwandan forces and intelligence services.” During the first two weeks of January, multiple fronts became active simultaneously - in Masisi, southern Lubero, Rutshuru, and Nyiragongo. Fighting was intense, prolonged, and steadily advanced toward Goma. The Final Week Before the Fall On January 18, 2025, President Tshisekedi addressed ambassadors accredited in Kinshasa, calling on Western countries to impose targeted sanctions against Rwanda, which he accused of backing the M23. Five days later, fighting around Saké escalated further. On January 23, Major General Peter Cirimwami, military governor of North Kivu, was shot and seriously wounded while traveling to the front line west of Goma. He later succumbed to his injuries. On Saturday, January 25, clashes reached the immediate outskirts of Goma. The Congolese army and its allies faced the M23, backed by Rwanda. Thirteen soldiers - from South Africa, Malawi, and Uruguay, deployed with the SADC regional force or the UN mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) - were killed. In response, Kinshasa recalled its diplomats from Kigali and gave Rwanda 48 hours to cease all diplomatic activity on Congolese soil. Goma Plunged Into Chaos The impact on the city was immediate. High-voltage power lines were cut during the fighting, plunging Goma into darkness and soon cutting off water supplies. M23 fighters and Rwandan soldiers entered the city. On Monday, January 27, gunfire was heard in the city center, and M23 elements and Rwandan special forces were reported in several neighborhoods. The day before, UN Secretary-General António Guterres had directly blamed Kigali after another day of fighting. Clashes continued, particularly around the southern part of Goma airport. On the Rwandan side, a spokesperson for the Rwandan Defense Forces reported at least five dead and 24 seriously wounded in a border locality. That same day, a mass escape occurred at Munzenze prison, which held around 3,000 inmates. On Tuesday, January 28, Goma awoke to heavy detonations and exchanges of fire, while in Kinshasa, protests erupted in several districts, including Limete, Kitambo, and the administrative area of Gombe. Hospitals in Goma were overwhelmed, unable to cope with the influx of wounded. On Wednesday, January 29, several hundred Romanian nationals - described by Kinshasa as military instructors with the FARDC and by Kigali as mercenaries - crossed into Gisenyi, Rwanda, before being evacuated to Romania.