Mali’s Fragile Regime Confronts Rising Islamist Threat and Internal Strains

Bamako, Mali - Mali faces a precarious crossroads as a deepening insurgency and a worsening fuel crisis compound the challenges confronting the country’s military government. Analysts warn that the collapse of the junta could create a vacuum exploited by Islamist groups seeking to establish an Islamic state.

According to Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel Programme at Germany’s Konrad Adenauer Foundation, popular unrest has been muted largely due to fear of what might follow."So far nobody is demonstrating against the government because people know that if they bring it down, the next one could be an Islamist regime," Laessing said. "That fear is, paradoxically, helping to strengthen the junta’s hold on power."

Mali’s political turmoil began in June 2020 with the emergence of the June 5 Movement - Rally of Patriotic Forces (M5-RFP), a coalition of civil society groups, opposition parties, and religious leaders. The coalition led mass protests against then-President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, accusing his administration of corruption and failing to curb jihadist violence.

Imam Mahmoud Dicko, a prominent and polarizing cleric, played a leading role in mobilizing the demonstrations. Dicko first gained national attention during the 1991 uprising that toppled President Moussa Traoré.

During mediation talks led by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Keïta reportedly warned that Dicko sought to turn Mali into an Islamic state under sharia law - a claim that triggered a heated reaction among regional leaders.

Weeks later, soldiers led by then-Captain Assimi Goïta overthrew Keïta’s government. A second coup in 2021 cemented Goïta’s authority, installing him as President of the Transition.

The junta initially pledged to restore civilian rule through elections in February 2022, but the process has been repeatedly delayed. Meanwhile, violence has surged.

Data from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies indicate that more than 17,700 people have been killed in Mali’s conflict since 2012, with over two-thirds of those deaths occurring after 2020. The al-Qaida-affiliated group JNIM has expanded operations beyond Mali into Benin and Nigeria, fueled in part by ransom payments from high-profile kidnappings.

Human rights organizations accuse Malian forces, allied militias, and Russian Wagner mercenaries of committing widespread abuses during counterinsurgency operations.

Diplomatically, Mali is increasingly isolated. The country withdrew from ECOWAS, forfeiting vital regional support, and instead signed a mutual defense pact with Burkina Faso and Niger, both under military rule. Relations with Western governments have soured, prompting several embassies and aid agencies to scale back operations.

Inside the junta, tensions are reportedly rising among the five colonels who orchestrated the 2020 coup. Colonel Malick Diaw, head of the National Transitional Council, and Defence Minister Sadio Camara are reportedly positioning themselves as potential successors to Goïta.

Exiled in Algeria since 2023 after falling out with the junta, Imam Mahmoud Dicko could soon return to Mali.

"Some within JNIM are calling for Dicko’s return, hoping to negotiate with him instead of the Malian government," a political insider said. "Their ultimate goal is to establish an Islamic state - and they are closer than ever."

As Mali grapples with internal divisions and external threats, the country’s fragile transition remains under intense pressure, leaving the future uncertain.