Mali on the Brink as al-Qaida-Linked Jihadists Tighten Grip on the Country

Bamako, Mali - The al-Qaida-affiliated jihadist group Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) is intensifying its offensive across Mali, blocking key supply routes and deepening a crisis that has brought the nation to the verge of economic paralysis and political collapse.

Over the past two weeks, JNIM fighters have attacked fuel convoys and blocked major roads leading to Bamako and other regions, cutting off fuel imports from neighboring Ivory Coast, Mauritania, and Senegal. The blockade has triggered a severe fuel shortage that has left the capital struggling with long queues at petrol stations, power cuts, and rising food prices.

With schools closed, shops shuttered, and public transport largely halted, daily life in Bamako has come to a near standstill. The disruption has worsened an already fragile political climate under the transitional government led by the military junta.

Analysts warn that the militants are tightening their hold around the capital. In areas under JNIM control, residents have reported the enforcement of strict dress codes and religious rulings through makeshift courts that lack fair-trial guarantees, according to a 2024 Human Rights Watch report.

Western governments have raised the alarm. The United States this week issued two security advisories urging its citizens to leave Mali “immediately,” citing the deteriorating security situation. Australia, Germany, and Italy issued similar warnings.

A former Malian minister, now in exile, told The Guardian that the country risks “collapsing before our eyes,” warning of the potential for another coup - Mali’s third in five years and sixth since independence in 1960.

“Before 31 December, a coup will happen in the Sahel,” the former official said. “Mali will go first, and then the same domino effect could follow, just like between 2020 and 2023.”

Experts say the coming weeks will be decisive. Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel Programme at Germany’s Konrad Adenauer Foundation, said the situation could worsen as remaining fuel reserves are depleted.

“Next week will be really bad,” he warned. “It’s difficult to see how they can resupply the capital in sufficient quantities.”

Observers fear that if Bamako were to fall, Mali could face the grim prospect of an Islamist republic under JNIM, mirroring Taliban-ruled Afghanistan - a development that could destabilize the entire Sahel region.