ADF Advance Toward Walese-Karo Raises Fears of Strategic Regrouping

Mambasa, Ituri March 19, 2026 - Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) fighters have intensified their movement along the Kisangani axis, advancing from Bapere (Lubero) into the Okapi Wildlife Reserve following the recent attack on a Chinese mining site in Muchacha. On the night of March 17, the group attacked the Babesua patrol post, leaving at least 19 civilians dead, according to local reports. The attack has heightened fears among local leaders that the ADF is attempting to push toward the Walese-Karo region, a known stronghold of Musa Baluku, along the Mambasa-Isiro axis via Nduye. Recent FARDC-UPDF operations reportedly targeted ADF positions in Walese-Karo, prompting concerns that the fighters are seeking to regroup or extract their leader. Local communities fear the group could bypass Epulu and Mambasa to reinforce Baluku before retreating to the Bapere forests, whose terrain offers a strategic advantage. Observers note that such movements reflect a recurring ADF survival strategy, involving mobility and reinforcement between factions. Similar operations were reported after June 2024, when fighters moved across Bandulu, Bilulu, and Midede to support units under pressure from joint military offensives. The evolving situation underscores the fluid and adaptive nature of ADF operations, raising concerns over regional security and the risk of further attacks along key corridors in eastern DRC.