Analyst Sees Tactical Kabila-AFC/M23 Convergence And Urges Tougher US Sanctions

Kinshasa, August 9, 2026 - Central Africa analyst Patrick Mbeko said recent developments suggest a "tactical and circumstantial convergence" between former President Joseph Kabila and the AFC/M23, while cautioning that this should not be read as a strategic alliance.

Mbeko said contacts between Kabila's circle and the AFC/M23 would be shaped by political circumstance, including what he described as the increasingly perilous environment for any Kabila return to Kinshasa after years of pressure on his faction.

On August 7, Mbeko criticized the United States for what he called insufficient sanctions against Rwandan President Paul Kagame and his inner circle. He argued that sanctions would be effective only if they targeted Kagame directly, rather than peripheral figures.

Mbeko also alleged that lobbying linked to Rwandan interests, including intervention by US Senator Lindsey Graham, had delayed Treasury sanctions and influenced US policy through the Vice President's office. He said foreign observers face a confused picture when Kinshasa negotiates with the AFC while also accusing Kabila of collusion.

He urged a clearer distinction between the M23's historic claims, which he linked to grievances within the Tutsi community, and the political ambitions of the AFC led by former electoral commission head Corneille Nangaa, saying that distinction is important for assessing negotiations and the conflict's trajectory.