Analyst Sees Tactical Kabila-AFC Convergence and Calls for Harder US Sanctions on Kagame Circle

Kinshasa, DRC, August 9, 2026 - Patrick Mbeko, a prominent analyst on Central African affairs, has asserted that recent developments indicate a "tactical and circumstantial convergence" between former President Joseph Kabila and the AFC/M23. Mbeko emphasized that while there may be interactions between Kabila's circle and the AFC/M23, these should not be misconstrued as a strategic alliance. He noted that the political landscape in Kinshasa has made a return for Kabila to the capital politically perilous, given the historical pressures exerted on his faction.

On August 7, Mbeko criticized the United States for its insufficient sanctions against Rwandan President Paul Kagame and his inner circle, arguing that the recent measures were merely a temporary response. He claimed that the effectiveness of US sanctions hinges on targeting Kagame directly, rather than peripheral figures. Mbeko alleged that interventions from US Senator Lindsey Graham had delayed the imposition of Treasury sanctions, suggesting that lobbying efforts from Rwandan interests reached the Vice President's office, thereby influencing US policy.

The analyst further delineated the complexities of the current political dynamics, asserting that the Kinshasa government's simultaneous negotiations with the AFC while accusing Kabila of collusion creates a confusing narrative for foreign observers. He urged for a clearer distinction between the historic claims of the M23, which are rooted in the Tutsi community's grievances, and the political ambitions of the AFC, led by former electoral commission head Corneille Nangaa. This distinction is crucial for understanding the broader implications of the ongoing conflict and the potential for future negotiations.