Fitch Affirms Rwanda’s Economic Outlook Despite Regional Tensions

Kigali, 14 March 2026 - Fitch Ratings, the American-British credit rating agency, has reaffirmed confidence in Rwanda’s economy, maintaining its ‘B+ rating with a stable outlook’ and projecting continued growth despite regional security and political challenges. In its latest assessment released on 13 March 2026, Fitch indicated that Rwanda’s economy is expected to remain resilient, with growth projected to exceed 7% in the 2026/2027 fiscal year. The agency acknowledged that earlier concerns over reduced external financing, driven by regional tensions and strained diplomatic relations with countries such as the United Kingdom, Canada, and Belgium, had weighed on the outlook. However, it noted that confidence has rebounded since April 2025. According to the report, international partners continued to support Rwanda, providing nearly $1 billion in funding by June 2025. Fitch expects external financing to remain strong, with foreign loans projected to approach $1 billion in 2026/2027, largely on low-interest, long-term terms. Fitch also downplayed the potential economic impact of recent U.S. sanctions on the Rwandan military, stating that these measures are unlikely to significantly affect the broader economy. “The loans are directed to the government, not the military, and are concessional in nature,” the agency noted. However, the report highlighted rising public debt, which could reach 79% of GDP by 2027, driven by major investments such as the Bugesera International Airport project and the expansion of RwandAir. Key sectors expected to sustain growth include infrastructure development, agriculture, and tourism, with the new airport seen as a critical driver of economic expansion. Fitch further commended Rwanda’s efforts to reduce the budget deficit, noting that fiscal reforms, including the introduction of new tax measures, are improving domestic revenue. The deficit is projected to decline to 3.6% of GDP by 2026/2027, down from 5.9% in 2024/2025. Overall, the agency concluded that Rwanda’s economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by prudent fiscal management and sustained international support, even as regional uncertainties persist.

Faits rapportés

Kigali, 14 March 2026 - Fitch Ratings, the American-British credit rating agency, has reaffirmed confidence in Rwanda’s economy, maintaining its ‘B+ rating with a stable outlook’ and projecting continued growth despite regional security and political challenges. In its latest assessment released on 13 March 2026, Fitch indicated that Rwanda’s economy is expected to remain resilient, with growth projected to exceed 7% in the 2026/2027 fiscal year. The agency acknowledged that earlier concerns over reduced external financing, driven by regional tensions and strained diplomatic relations with countries such as the United Kingdom, Canada, and Belgium, had weighed on the outlook. However, it noted that confidence has rebounded since April 2025. According to the report, international partners continued to support Rwanda, providing nearly $1 billion in funding by June 2025. Fitch expects external financing to remain strong, with foreign loans projected to approach $1 billion in 2026/2027, largely on low-interest, long-term terms. Fitch also downplayed the potential economic impact of recent U.S. sanctions on the Rwandan military, stating that these measures are unlikely to significantly affect the broader economy. “The loans are directed to the government, not the military, and are concessional in nature,” the agency noted. However, the report highlighted rising public debt, which could reach 79% of GDP by 2027, driven by major investments such as the Bugesera International Airport project and the expansion of RwandAir. Key sectors expected to sustain growth include infrastructure development, agriculture, and tourism, with the new airport seen as a critical driver of economic expansion. Fitch further commended Rwanda’s efforts to reduce the budget deficit, noting that fiscal reforms, including the introduction of new tax measures, are improving domestic revenue. The deficit is projected to decline to 3.6% of GDP by 2026/2027, down from 5.9% in 2024/2025. Overall, the agency concluded that Rwanda’s economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by prudent fiscal management and sustained international support, even as regional uncertainties persist.