Analyst Christian Moleka Says Military Performance Remains DRC's Main Challenge

Kinshasa, July 14, 2026 - Congolese political analyst Christian Moleka has argued that the Democratic Republic of Congo's greatest challenge in the conflict in the east remains military rather than diplomatic, despite recent international support for Kinshasa's position. Speaking during an online discussion hosted by journalist Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala, Moleka assessed the government's military and diplomatic strategies in response to the conflict involving the AFC/M23. He noted that between 2022 and 2025, the DRC allocated approximately US$4.5 billion to defense under its military programming law. However, he said the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) have been unable to regain the strategic initiative since the capture of Bunagana in 2022, describing the operational results as falling short of expectations. While acknowledging significant diplomatic achievements, Moleka pointed to what he described as a disconnect between international support and developments on the battlefield. He cited measures including European sanctions against Rwanda, growing international recognition of the conflict, and the unanimous adoption of a United Nations Security Council resolution addressing the crisis. Despite these diplomatic gains, he argued that they have yet to produce decisive changes on the ground. Referring to recent assessments of the conflict, Moleka noted that AFC/M23 has continued to expand the territory under its control since the Doha agreements, illustrating what he described as the limited practical impact of diplomatic efforts alone. According to the analyst, military capacity remains the decisive factor in strengthening the country's diplomatic position. He compared diplomacy and military operations to two complementary elements that must work together, arguing that international negotiations require credible military leverage to achieve lasting results. Moleka warned that diplomatic momentum could lose its effectiveness if it is not supported by stronger military performance, emphasizing that battlefield realities continue to shape political negotiations. Looking beyond the immediate situation, he characterized the conflict as a prolonged war of attrition that has evolved over nearly three decades. In his view, the central challenge is no longer the intensity of individual military engagements but the ability of both the state and its institutions to sustain a long-term strategy combining military resilience with diplomatic engagement.